| Cleaning's high-tech future |
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| Thursday, July 03, 2003 |
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 By Wm R. Griffin, president
Cleaning Consultant Services, Inc.
SAN FRANCISCO — Futurist Peter Schwartz was the keynote speaker for the opening luncheon of the Building Owners and Managers Association International (BOMA) annual convention June 28 to July 1. (Overview of conference and exposition — click here.)
Approximately 3,500 attendees from the United States, Canada and 17 other countries participated in the convention and tradeshow at the Moscone Center in the heart of the city.
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMPeter Schwartz and son.
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMPhoto by Wm. R. Griffin
These are two of the most important events I attend each year as they give me an inside view of the issues and state of the office building, industrial and institutional property markets which represent large customer segments for contract cleaning companies around the world.
BOMA always puts together a great convention, the speakers are excellent, the show is professionally managed, the staff is helpful and gracious and the food is top of the line and plentiful.
Schwartz, an internationally renowned futurist and business strategist is co-founder of Global Business Network in Emeryville, CA and the author of two books. He lectures and consults around the world regarding future trends and served as a consultant for the movies Deep Impact, War Games and Sneakers and was a script advisor to Steven Speilberg on the film, Minority Report.
Much of Schwartz's presentation, which included a number of clips from Minority Report and was based on the work he and other forward thinkers did for the Spielberg's latest movie which is based on a story that takes place in an American city in 2054.
According to Schwartz, although things will change, much of the future will be an evolution or layering of the past. We will still live in apartments and home and work in buildings made of concrete, steel and glass in many of today's major metropolitan areas.
Some key and interesting points from Schwartz's presentation that will have a direct impact on the cleaning industry and the customers we serve in the future are outlined below:
- People will live longer and be healthier, expect 100 to 150 years of age to be common. We will learn to prevent many diseases and regenerate body parts.
- The end of retirement is upon us. People will have multiple careers and be able and want to work to a much older age than is customary today.
- The US population will be more diverse in the future. We will continue to see waves of immigrants, primarily of Asian and Spanish descent.
At UC Berkley, 45 percent of the entering class in 2003 is of Asian descent; these are our future business and government leaders.
Since 1992 in California, the state has opened one new classroom per day.
America is still young, compared to other countries. Our population is and will continue to be vigorous and healthy which provides a good base for workers and soldiers. In contrast, Europe has an aging and shrinking population that will need to be taken care of, rather than produce goods and services.
- There has been a movement out of poverty during the last 50 years and there is no reason this shouldn't continue. With the current rate of growth in individual income, in 2054 our population will be twice as rich as it is today. We won't eliminate poverty, but more people will see a rise in their income and net worth and there will continue to be boom and bust cycles.
- Even though manufacturing jobs and plants are being eliminated today, as robotic and other technologies advance, manufacturing will return to the US (with fewer people involved). Technology will enable us to make things faster, cheaper and better than other less educated and technologically advanced countries.
- A global middle class of 2 to 3 billion people will develop as China and other countries see increases in productivity and wealth.
Expect to see a tremendous growth of talent and population in major metropolitan cities of the country. These are great places to live today and that will remain constant in the future.
- We will be connected. You will be able to reach anyone, anytime, anyplace and we will give up some privacy for this capability.
- Biotechnology will bring us new, efficient and clean ways to manufacture items, much as nature makes thing now. We will design and build things from the bottom up, one atom at a time.
These new manufacturing processes will be 1000s of time more efficient than they are today and generate no pollution.
Manufacturing will be cleaner, greener, and more productive.
- Buildings, fashions, icons and designs will remain stable and endure, but continue to evolve. Cities and buildings will be layered in time, in that older buildings that are 100 years old will be remodeled and exist next door to new modern structures.
- Keyboards and wires will disappear; other forms of interaction with computers, buildings, and vehicles will be developed that are less intrusive and obvious. Examples include gestural, voice and other types of interfaces.
- We will still have run-down neighborhoods, a drug problem and crime.
- Some city icons (locations and buildings) will be frozen in time, the White House, the Space Needle; distinct and recognizable buildings will endure.
- Expect to see more personalized communication and data flow. You will get your news real time, however you want it, wherever you are. The electronic books and newspaper will be reality and give you real time updates as things happen right in front of your eyes.
- Hydrocarbon fuels will become obsolete and be replaced by clean hydrogen powered fuel cells.
- Expect big advances in biotechnology, including the ability to control plant and animal evolution at the atomic and molecular level. There will be hybrid crosses between animal and plant species.
- Nano and micro robotic technology will become a reality that impacts all aspects of our life.
Much of the technology that we are talking about already exists, but isn't widely known or utilized for economic, political and other reasons, Schwartz said.
Although Schwartz was upbeat and positive, he also mentioned the reality that nothing is guaranteed. Our future is still at risk of being impacted by war, economic disruption, disease, rapid climate change, and other catastrophic global disasters. Uncertainty is a reality that will continue to exist.
"At the same time," said Schwartz, "history is on the side of the optimist. There seems to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, that if we as a people look for the good, we tend to find it."
When the presentation ended, I spoke with Schwartz and asked him what changes he might see in the future that are related to cleaning?
After thinking for a few seconds, and admitting that he hadn't given the subject much thought. He offered the following observations.
"I would expect that the use of cleaning chemicals will change radically or even disappear from use. Other ways of cleaning, such as ultrasonic as well as wider spread use of coatings will reduce the need for cleaning, as we know it. In the future, cleaning will not be as hazardous or disruptive as it is today," he said.
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